How we grade ourselves — in public
Every rating business faces the same temptation: grade generously, keep customers happy, quietly forget the misses. AlphaAssay counters part of that risk with demote-only application rules and signed-or-explicitly-untrusted snapshots. The current snapshot is deliberately narrower than an outcome score, and the publication path remains operator-controlled.
What calibration v0 actually publishes
The public payload contains a privacy-bucketed count of evaluated mature registrations,
forward_outcomes.status=accumulating, and honesty=insufficient_history until a
separately defined mature-outcome metric exists. It publishes no Brier score, base rate,
survived/deflated count or hit rate.
The mechanics, in plain language
The public state. The endpoint is free and needs no account:
curl https://api.alphaassay.com/v1/public/calibration
How its trust state is exposed. A valid calibration snapshot carries named Ed25519 signature
fields. If the snapshot is stale or unavailable, the response reports signed:false and a
reason instead of serving unsigned history as trusted. Separately, our verdicts are demote-only in the
application contract: no ordinary rule upgrades a grade after the fact. A signature authenticates one
snapshot's bytes; it does not independently timestamp the record or prevent a later replacement.
What the fields mean. The bucket discloses only population size; accumulating says
outcome evidence is still being collected; insufficient_history refuses to turn that state
into a reliability claim. Authentication proves the published bytes, not an unpublished score.
Zero is an honest number
Today the counter is low — the ledger counts from day one, and we launched recently. The service publishes the current snapshot; a reviewer can keep a retained copy and compare it with later versions.
Pre-registration creates tenant state immediately and is queued for later daily operator-published chain inclusion. The immediate response is not an inclusion proof or an independent timestamp. That stronger time claim requires a separately pinned external anchor. Signed certificates remain separately verifiable. Don't trust an examiner who won't be examined — retain and compare the evidence.