We publish what the graveyard teaches.
The uncomfortable truth of quant research: most profitable-looking strategies are statistical illusions. That is not our opinion — it is the published record, and we write it up in plain language: start with the primer, then diagnose your own backtest.
Why backtests flatter everyone
Look-ahead, survivorship, selection under multiple testing — and the statistics that catch them.
COMPARISONTools to validate a trading signal, compared honestly
An honest field guide: AlphaAssay, QuantConnect, walk-forward tools, purged-CV libraries and DIY statistics — what each is best for, and where each stops.
INTEGRATIONA validation gate your agent can call
Hosted API and MCP server, priced per call: what the gate checks before your agent acts, how to wire it in two transports, and why a library inside the loop cannot count your trials.
CATEGORYWhat is an assay office for trading signals?
Independent grading for strategy evidence — what an assay office does, what it never does, and the honest map of alternatives: libraries, GIPS verification, prop-firm evals, tournaments, provenance pins.
CASE STUDYThe $546k backtest that passed walk-forward
Own backtester, real fees, walk-forward, six months live — and the account still went from a simulated $546k to $3k. What honest self-validation cannot see.
PROTOCOLHow to test a signal provider
Seven falsifiable tests that separate edge from selection — for any provider, without their cooperation. Run it against us first.
Is my backtest overfit?
Twelve signs a backtest was manufactured — costs, leakage, multiple testing, regime luck.
TOOLThe Deflated Sharpe Ratio, explained
After N trials, is your Sharpe real or selection luck? Formula, worked example, in-browser calculator.
TOOLThe Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio, with a calculator
Is your Sharpe ratio statistically above a benchmark, given track length, skew and fat tails? Formula, worked example, in-browser calculator.
TOOLMinimum Track Record Length, with a calculator
How long must a track record be before a Sharpe ratio clears a benchmark with confidence? The MinTRL formula and an in-browser calculator.
TOOLProbability of Backtest Overfitting (PBO), with a calculator
After picking the best of many strategy configurations, how likely is your winner an overfit artifact? The CSCV estimate, explained, with an in-browser calculator.
TOOLMinimum Backtest Length (MinBTL), with a calculator
You tried N variants — how long must the backtest be before the best one's Sharpe stops being expected from noise? 45 trials at Sharpe 1.0 already need 5 years of daily data.
TOOLStatistical power: could your data even show an edge?
A test with 12% power proves nothing in either direction. Effect size, achieved power and the sample you actually need — with an in-browser calculator.
TOOLBreak-even AUM: at what size does your edge die?
Market impact grows with the square root of size; your margin doesn't. The AUM where the edge stops paying for its own footprint — a death boundary, not a recommendation.
EVIDENCESame strategy, five engines, different answers
Identical strategy, data and costs — up to 3.71% apart across engines. The simulator is part of the experiment.
METHODWhat counts as the same strategy?
Three RSI variants are one idea asked three times — why honest deflation counts cumulatively, per family.
GUIDEWalk-forward analysis, honestly
What it catches, what it quietly misses, and how it compares with CV, CPCV and placebo testing.
CHECKLISTThe backtest overfitting checklist
Twelve checks before you trust a strategy — copy as markdown, wire into your agent.
The Signal Validation Benchmark
Reproducible known-answer specimens, a 9-strategy field result, and current public calibration population/status evidence.
RECORDHow we grade ourselves — in public
What calibration v0 really publishes: a bucketed mature-registration population and an accumulating/insufficient-history state, with authenticated snapshots and explicit limits.
RECORDIs AlphaAssay legit? Run the checks yourself
Every trust criterion a careful reviewer applies — and the check you can run right now, without an account. Including the two we deliberately don't meet.
LONGREADWas your trading edge ever real?
The field guide to backtest forensics: why edges vanish, what kills them first, and what actually survived when we tested 18,000 rules at once — 126,000 pairs, 245 survivors, 41 beat holding.